Killer Rabbits - Part 2

Some friends pulled me into a fantasy basketball league last year. In my rookie season, I placed second in my league. I attribute that success to pure dumb luck. There is an element of skill involved but pure dumb luck can be an equal factor in success.

I had some good fantasy players on my team last year. My  1st pick, D Wade, carried my team for most of the year and my 2nd pick, Y Ming, helped my team surge to the top during the second half of the season. The rest of my team was fairly unbalanced. I've been told that's where fantasy success lies. Everybody picks studs during the first 2 - 4 rounds. It's the middle rounds where a season can be won or lost. The problem with the Rabbit's last year was an early season deficiency in rebounds and steals (we were playing a fairly standard yahoo rotisserie league). A midseason trade for D Howard and R Artest proved to semi disaster with Artest being on the bench for large parts of the season. D Howard helped in rebounds but caused other categories to start dropping e.g. FT%. With the return of Y Ming from injury and him playing the best basketball of his career helped propel the Rabbits to within striking distance of  the championship.

This year the Rabbits have re-drafted a new team. I have one season under my belt but that won't necessarily translate to same amount of success (remember the blurb about pure dumb luck!)

The care I took with who I drafted this year had some thoughtful analysis put into it. In fantasy sports, thoughtful analysis can be your own worst enemy. My strategy was to put together a team with players that I liked and had decent fantasy value. Enough of this rhetorical thinking, time to dissect my draft results.

My starting five will look somewhat like this:
PF   Nowitzki
SF   R Jefferson
C    Diaw
SG  G Wallace
PG  Nash

After not watching basketball for a couple of years and starting up again last year (because of fantasy basketball), the 3 players I really liked and hoped to draft this year was Nowitzki, Nash and Diaw. I didn't like them in that order but that was how they fell to me in my draft. After the draft, I felt I might have taken Diaw a round early but I don't think he would have been available in the 4th round. I should have balanced that thinking out with who was still available... TMac, Carter, AK47 and D Howard. This is definitely a pick I hope I don't regret. On the other hand, Diaw is center eligible. Howard might get center eligibility but I didn't want his FT% tanking my team though his FG%, rebounds and blocks sure are nice. We'll see how it turns out.

I was happy with G Wallace in the 4th and got lucky with R Jefferson being available in the sixth round. That's my starting five. Other players on my team: Boozer, Iguodala, Bell, TJ Ford, T Murphy, D Gooden, Krstic, Delonte West, R Gay and Korver.

On first impression, my team might come up a little short on points and blocks during the season. I don't think we'll do badly but that looks to be my weakest categories statistically. I think we'll be strong in FG%, 3ptm, assists, steals and assist to turnover ratio and we'll compete fairly well in rebounds.

I think the sleepers for my team are going to be Diaw, Wallace and Iguodala. Diaw emerged last season and seems to have great chemistry with Nash. I hope with Amare back that doesn't cut too deeply into Diaw's development. Having Diaw is also sort of an insurance policy for Nash, I envision him being the secondary playmaker for the Suns if Nash is injured (knock on wood) or resting. Wallace might have a breakout year if he doesn't get injured (knock on wood). Iguodala might also have a breakout year depending on how well Webber plays.

Anyway there you have it, the Killer Rabbits Deux!